Machine Learning Analysis Reveals Scale of Open Waste Burning in Indonesia

A recent study published by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) leverages machine learning to provide an extensive inventory of municipal open waste burning across Indonesia. The research indicates that in the reference year, an estimated 26.6 million tonnes of municipal waste were openly burned, resulting in approximately 23.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. The study's findings underscore the significant environmental and climate challenges posed by this practice in Indonesia. A key revelation is that residential combustion accounts for approximately 70% of the total incinerated waste, far surpassing contributions from landfill fires. Through spatial analysis, the researchers observed a strong clustering of open waste burning in densely populated provinces, particularly on Java Island. This analysis also highlighted notable intra-provincial variations at the district level, suggesting localized factors play a crucial role. The methodology integrated multiple approaches, including national datasets, a large-scale household survey, spatial analysis, and topic modeling of qualitative responses. This comprehensive approach allowed for a detailed assessment of the prevalence of open burning, the recognition of spatial patterns, an examination of material composition, and an understanding of the behavioral influences driving the practice. Analysis of the material composition of the burned waste revealed a disproportionate presence of dry and combustible components, such as plastics, paper, wood, and garden waste. Furthermore, Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling identified inadequate waste collection infrastructure and household convenience as dominant drivers of open burning. The ultimate objective of this study is to generate evidence-based insights that can inform targeted policies and interventions. By understanding the scale and drivers of open burning, particularly residential practices, the research aims to guide improvements in household waste collection services, thereby reducing emissions and associated environmental impacts.